Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/295700 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CReAM Discussion Paper Series No. 03/23
Publisher: 
Centre for Research & Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London, London
Abstract: 
In this paper we describe the development, calibration and validation of a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting small area (area unit) ethnic populations in Auckland, New Zealand's most culturally diverse city, in which about 40 percent of the population is foreign born. The key elements of the microsimulation model are a module that projects residential mobility within Auckland and migration between Auckland and the rest of the world, and a module that projects mobility in ethnic identity. The model is developed and calibrated using data on 1996-2001 linked populations in the New Zealand Longitudinal Census (NZLC) 1981-2006. We compare the microsimulation results with the actual 2006 population in each area unit. We find that in terms of indexes of overall residential sorting and ethnic diversity, our projected values are very close to the actual values. At a more disaggregated spatial scale, the model performs well in terms of the simulated normalised entropy measure of ethnic diversity in area units, but performs less well in terms of projecting residential sorting for each individual ethnic group.
Subjects: 
dynamic microsimulation model
ethnic identity
location transition
ethnic transition
JEL: 
C53
F22
J10
R23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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