Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296055 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10966
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the standard New Keynesian theoretical framework for monetary policy. Using a simulative model, we show that they can materialize upon introducing in particularly strong doses boundedly-rational expectations that de-anchor endogenously, as they are updated according to the actual inflation process, with indexed wages, and persistent inflation shocks. In these cases, a more hawkish central-bank stance on inflation expands the stability region of the system, which however remains bounded. On the other hand, the critical combinations of factors that trigger instability can be regarded as extreme in empirical terms, while in "normal times" the system is resilient to shocks and expectation de-anchoring even with more dovish monetary policy.
Schlagwörter: 
cost-push inflation
New Keynesian models for monetary policy
wage-price spiral
de-anchoring of inflation expectations
JEL: 
E17
E30
E50
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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