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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10970
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We introduce the technique of band spectral panel regression (BSPR) to analyze global linkages across sectors and frequency bands. It relies on decomposing time series —allowably measured in mixed observation frequency— into "deviation cycle" dynamics by frequency band. We use it to compute measures of real co-movement, trade linkage, financial market integration, and policy coordination band by band. Considering intra-industry as well as inter-industry linkage indicators, it is applied to data of contemporary China and its 20 major trading partners in the pre-trade war and pre-pandemic era. Band-specific fixed effects and band-industry-specific interaction terms are included. For labor intensive industries co-movement through intra-industry trade linkages is found to be band-specific. Moreover, our results clarify the puzzle of financial globalization implying real regionalization or contagious synchronization of cyclical dynamics. We find the latter to hold in the 4–6 years band and the former in the 6–10 years range.
Schlagwörter: 
spectral regression
frequency domain
cyclical co-movement
sectors
JEL: 
C32
C49
E32
F40
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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