Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296061 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10972
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We use a marginal treatment effect (MTE) representation of a fuzzy regression discontinuity setting to propose a novel estimator. The estimator can be thought of as extrapolating the traditional fuzzy regression discontinuity estimate or as an observational study that adjusts for endogenous selection into treatment using information at the discontinuity. We show in a frequentest framework that it is consistent under weaker assumptions than existing approaches and then discuss conditions in a Bayesian framework under which it can be considered the posterior mean given the observed conditional moments. We then use this approach to examine the effects of early grade retention. We show that the benefits of early grade retention policies are larger for students with lower baseline achievement and smaller for low-performing students who are exempt from retention. These findings imply that (1) the benefits of early grade retention policies are larger than have been estimated using traditional fuzzy regression discontinuity designs but that (2) retaining additional students would have a limited effect on student outcomes.
Subjects: 
regression discontinuity designs
local average treatment effects
early grade retention policies
JEL: 
C01
I20
I28
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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