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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11013
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range of panel datasets, including qualitative surveys on firm-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms' forecast errors of own sales growth. In this context, we conduct a variety of exercises to demonstrate the methodology's validity and accuracy.
Schlagwörter: 
expectations
firm data
forecast errors
survey data
JEL: 
C53
C83
D22
D84
E32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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