Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296102 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11013
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range of panel datasets, including qualitative surveys on firm-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms' forecast errors of own sales growth. In this context, we conduct a variety of exercises to demonstrate the methodology's validity and accuracy.
Subjects: 
expectations
firm data
forecast errors
survey data
JEL: 
C53
C83
D22
D84
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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