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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2022
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Quantitative Economics [ISSN:] 1759-7331 [Volume:] 13 [Issue:] 3 [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 1145-1169
Verlag: 
The Econometric Society, New Haven, CT
Zusammenfassung: 
Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This is, however, at the expense of modeling flexibility, as it rules out cross-variable shrinkage, that is, shrinking coefficients on lags of other variables more aggressively than those on own lags. We develop a prior that has the best of both worlds: it can accommodate cross-variable shrinkage, while maintaining many useful analytical results, such as a closed-form expression of the marginal likelihood. This new prior also leads to fast posterior simulation-for a BVAR with 100 variables and 4 lags, obtaining 10,000 posterior draws takes less than half a minute on a standard desktop. We demonstrate the usefulness of the new prior via a structural analysis using a 15-variable VAR with sign restrictions to identify 5 structural shocks.
Schlagwörter: 
Shrinkage prior
marginal likelihood
structural VAR
optimal hyperparameters
sign restrictions
JEL: 
C11
C52
C55
E44
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