Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296322 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Quantitative Economics [ISSN:] 1759-7331 [Volume:] 14 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 235-275
Publisher: 
The Econometric Society, New Haven, CT
Abstract: 
A core mechanism of unified growth theory is that accelerating technological progress induces mass education and, through interaction with child quantity-quality substitution, a decline in fertility. Using unique new data for 21 OECD countries over the period 1750-2000, we test, for the first time, the validity of this core mechanism of unified growth theory. We measure a country's technological progress as patents per capita, R&D intensity, and investment in machinery, equipment, and intellectual property products. While controlling for confounders, such as income growth, mortality, and the gender wage gap, we establish (1) a significant impact of technological progress on education (positive) and fertility (negative); (2) that accelerating technological progress stimulated the fertility transition; and (3) that the baseline results are supported in 2SLS regressions using genetic-distance weighted foreign patent-intensity, compulsory schooling years, and minimum working age as instruments.
Subjects: 
Technological progress
fertility
education
quantity-quality tradeoff
unified growth theory
JEL: 
I25
J10
N30
O30
O40
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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