Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296679 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series No. WP23/05
Publisher: 
University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics, Dublin
Abstract: 
We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.
Subjects: 
Sports Forecasting
Betting Markets
Market Efficiency
Asian Handicap
JEL: 
G14
L83
Z20
Z21
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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