Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296711 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series No. WP24/07
Publisher: 
University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics, Dublin
Abstract: 
We investigate how the anchoring effect-a well-established cognitive bias-influences the full distribution of subjective beliefs. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on higher moments of the distribution remains unexplored. Through a pre-registered online experiment (N=732), we find that anchoring impacts the mean, variance, and skewness of belief distributions. Notably, the anchoring effect diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than means. Furthermore, presenting anchors prior to eliciting beliefs reduces the variance in belief distributions compared to when elicited without anchors. Our study shows that cognitive biases may have important impacts beyond point estimates.
Subjects: 
Anchoring
Belief Elicitation
Heuristics and Biases
JEL: 
D73
C91
K42
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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