Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296860 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
ISER Discussion Paper No. 1217
Publisher: 
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), Osaka
Abstract: 
In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.
Subjects: 
Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
data uncertainty
combining information
correlation
IPCC
JEL: 
C11
C52
C83
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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