Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296949 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers No. 194
Publisher: 
Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen
Abstract: 
Identifying the drivers of credit cycles is crucial for prudential regulation. We show in a model that investor sentiments result in excessive asset price movements, leading to sharp credit reversals. Motivated by this, we decompose fluctuations in stock prices into fundamental and noise shocks and estimate their effects on credit. Both shocks lead to a credit expansion, but only a noise shock results in a reversal if the anticipated shock fails to realise. Noise shocks have stronger effects when risk premiums are low. A novel debt overhang channel is important for the propagation of noise shocks.
Subjects: 
Credit cycles
news shocks
noise shocks
debt overhang
bank lending
JEL: 
E44
G24
G28
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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