Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/297032 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers No. 199
Publisher: 
Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen
Abstract: 
This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the early lowinflation environment of the covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 inflation surge. Conventionally elicited inflation expectations consistently exceed aggregated measures constructed under plausible weighting schemes. Aggregated measures display less disagreement and volatility and are stronger predictors of consumers' spending plans. The relative informational value of aggregated measures rises with the individual-level gap between conventional and aggregated inflation expectations. Our results chart a new course for designing measures of inflation expectations.
Subjects: 
Household expectations
Survey
Sectoral expectations
Inflation expectations
JEL: 
C83
E31
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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