Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/297297 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2857
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
Official estimates of economic growth are regularly revised and therefore forecasts for GDP growth are done on the basis of ever-changing data. The economic literature has intensively studied the properties of those revisions and their implications for forecasting models. However, it is much less known about the reasons for Statistical Agencies (SAs) to revise their estimates. In order to be timely and reliable, SAs have an explicit interest in not revising their initial GDP estimates too much, while they are much more open to revise GDP components over time. More than a curiosity, we exploit this resulting cross-correlation of GDP components revisions to build a model to better forecast GDP.
Subjects: 
revisions
real-time data
news and noise
JEL: 
C01
C82
E01
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-6222-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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