Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/297375 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2935
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB's workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility. Assuming that the monetary authority had full knowledge of prevailing conditions from mid-2021 onwards, the alternative policy strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once evaluating monetary policy on real-time quarterly vintages of incoming data and projections, the alternative interest rate paths would be broadly consistent with the observed policy conduct. The proximity of some benchmark optimal policy counterfactuals with the baseline, brings further indication that the actual policy conduct succeeded in implementing an efficient management of the output-inflation trade-off.
Subjects: 
estimated DSGE model
monetary policy frameworks
optimal policy
dual mandate
euro area
JEL: 
C53
E31
E42
E52
E58
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-6683-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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