Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/297937 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Central Bank Review (CBR) [ISSN:] 1303-0701 [Volume:] 21 [Issue:] 3 [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 71-86
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with stringency index and unemployment-related search index. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Card spendingADE-206
Interrupted time series analysis
Google trends
Stringency index
JEL: 
D12
D83
E21
E32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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