Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298038 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2024-031/V
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
The phenomenon of non-transitivity in outcomes, typically observed in non-effort games with predetermined probabilities and immediate clarity, extends to teambased, time-consuming games requiring effort that unfold over a long period of time. This study explores this aspect through an empirical analysis of professional football matches in the Netherlands involving three prominent teams: Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results reveal a nontransitive pattern over more than three decades, indicating that Feyenoord is more likely to triumph over PSV, PSV over Ajax, and Ajax over Feyenoord than the reverse scenarios.
Subjects: 
Non-transitive match outcomes
football
bookmakers
Elo-rating
JEL: 
C25
D01
Z2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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