Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298105 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper No. 272
Publisher: 
Institute for Applied Economic Research (ipea), Brasília
Abstract: 
We estimate a DSGE model for Brazil that includes both anticipated and unanticipated fiscal shocks. The model contains a relatively detailed public sector, which allows us to investigate the effects of anticipation for a much wider array of fiscal instruments than previously considered in the literature - indeed, we also analyze important budget components such as public investment, employment, and transfers. Instead of fixing in advance the degree of anticipation of fiscal shocks (generally assuming that they are anticipated in several quarters), we estimate it through a selection scheme based on Bayes Factors. We confirm the literature's result that fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of business cycles. However, we find that anticipated shocks are less relevant in Brazil when compared to other countries, and that the degree of anticipation varies between only one and two quarters, depending on the fiscal instrument.
Subjects: 
fiscal policy
fiscal rules
anticipation
Bayesian estimation
JEL: 
E32
E62
H30
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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