Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298123 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 677
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila
Abstract: 
This paper investigates whether the uncovered interest parity (UIP) will hold more firmly if the local currency bond markets (LCBMs) are more developed, and the presence of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) is expanded. Deviations in UIP decrease as LCBMs develop, while the patterns of the UIP premium in emerging markets increasingly resemble patterns in advanced economies. Capital flows respond more sensitively to the UIP premium for emerging markets when LCBMs are more developed. These suggest the development of LCBMs and NBFIs might induce more active cross-border carry trades and reduce UIP deviations. However, greater carry trade positions may increase a country's exposure to market disruptions and exchange rate volatility. Empirical results show that gross portfolio debt inflows increase (decrease) when the exchange rate appreciates (depreciates). While LCBMs becoming more developed can mitigate the negative effect of the original sin redux hypothesis in advanced economies, this aggravates the impact of exchange rate depreciation in emerging markets.
Subjects: 
uncovered interest parity
local currency bond markets
emerging economies
nonbank financial institutions
capital inflows
JEL: 
E44
F34
F62
G12
G21
G23
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.