Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298170 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 724
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila
Abstract: 
This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decrease accordingly, estimated at 1.7% to 7.0% and 0.27% to 0.78%, respectively. The simulation results also show that retail prices for rice would increase significantly in all rice-consuming countries. The impact of higher fertilizer prices would vary widely in the major rice-producing countries.
Subjects: 
rice
world prices
Asia
rice trade
food security
partial equilibrium model
JEL: 
Q17
Q18
F51
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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