Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298348 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers No. 1007
Publisher: 
Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo
Abstract: 
Weather and temperatures vary in ways that are difficult to explain and predict precisely. In this article we review data on temperature variations in the past as well possible reasons for these variations. Subsequently, we review key properties of global climate models and statistical analyses conducted by others on the ability of the global climate models to track historical temperatures. These tests show that standard climate models are rejected by time series data on global temperatures. Finally, we update and extend previous statistical analysis of temperature data (Dagsvik et al., 2020). Using theoretical arguments and statistical tests we find, as in Dagsvik et al. (2020), that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be strong enough to cause systematic changes in the temperature fluctuations during the last 200 years.
Subjects: 
Global climate models
Climate change
Temperature analysis
Fractional Gaussian noise
Long-range dependence
JEL: 
C22
C46
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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