Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298703 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] IZA Journal of Development and Migration [ISSN:] 2520-1786 [Volume:] 12 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] 10 [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-23
Publisher: 
Sciendo, Warsaw
Abstract: 
Despite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict intensity affect not only the formal sector, but also informal and illicit activities. Nighttime light provides a proxy for aggregate economic activity, mobile phone traffic by registered firms captures fluctuations in formal sector output, and the land surface devoted to poppy cultivation gives a measure of illicit production. The unit of observation is the district and the period of reference is 2012-2016. The results show that an increase in conflict-related casualties has a strong negative impact on formal economic activity in the following quarter and a positive effect on illicit activity after two quarters. The impact on aggregate economic activity is negative, but more muted.
Subjects: 
Afghanistan
conflict
economic activity
JEL: 
D74
E21
F35
I32
O17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Article

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