Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/299244 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 22/2024
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects are rather moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse flow supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data.
Subjects: 
Energy crisis
German natural gas market
narrative sign restrictions
natural gas price
structural scenario analysis
vector-autoregression
JEL: 
E32
F51
Q41
Q43
Q48
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-997-0
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.