Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/299244 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 22/2024
Verlag: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects are rather moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse flow supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data.
Schlagwörter: 
Energy crisis
German natural gas market
narrative sign restrictions
natural gas price
structural scenario analysis
vector-autoregression
JEL: 
E32
F51
Q41
Q43
Q48
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-997-0
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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