Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/299438 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1496
Verlag: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper explores the effect of inflation supply and demand shocks on government debt. It identifies the shocks using a sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with quarterly data. Estimations of dynamic panel regressions and local projections suggest that supply shocks lead to persistent increases in government debt, while demand shocks result in long-lasting declines. Furthermore, high debt levels increase economic vulnerability, amplifying the impacts of both supply and demand shocks by more than three times. Specifically, supply shocks increase debt through higher borrowing costs and more prolonged depreciation, whereas demand shocks erode debt through persistent reductions in primary balance, driven by increased revenues.
Schlagwörter: 
debt
inflation
sovereign risk
SVAR
local projections
JEL: 
C33
E31
G15
H63
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Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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