Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/300065 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11137
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding window analysis, we conclude that the differential between the long-term real interest rate and the real GDP growth rate (r-g) plays a crucial role in fiscal sustainability, as well as the existence of fiscal rules in terms of the budget balance, and also the output gap. The effects of inflation, external accounts balance and fiscal rules on sustainability coefficients à la Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (1998) are heterogenous. Furthermore, before the global financial crisis of 2008, the effects of the (r-g) differential were particularly strong, and depended on its sign as well as on past debt-to-GDP ratios.
Schlagwörter: 
fiscal sustainability
primary budget balance
public debt
panel data
expanding window
fiscal rules
JEL: 
C23
H61
H63
E62
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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