Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301317 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11191
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data.
Subjects: 
energy crisis
German natural gas market
narrative sign restrictions
natural gas price
structural scenario analysis
vector-autoregression
JEL: 
E32
F51
Q41
Q43
Q48
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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