Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301318 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11192
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets —such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade— are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs.
Schlagwörter: 
dynamic factor model
causality
geopolitical fragmentation
fragmentation index
JEL: 
C11
C33
E00
F01
F20
F40
F60
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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