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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Kahn, James A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Rich, Robert | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-08-17T14:27:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-08-17T14:27:04Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2003 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that productivity data alone provide insufficient evidence of regime changes; corroborating evidence from other data is crucial in identifying changes in trend growth. We also argue that our methodology would be effective in detecting changes in trend in real time: In the case of the 1990s, the methodology would have detected the regime switch within two years of its actual occurrence according to subsequent data. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aFederal Reserve Bank of New York |cNew York, NY | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aStaff Report |x159 | en |
dc.subject.jel | O4 | en |
dc.subject.jel | O51 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C32 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.stw | Produktivität | en |
dc.subject.stw | Neue Wachstumstheorie | en |
dc.subject.stw | Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum | en |
dc.subject.stw | Lohn | en |
dc.subject.stw | USA | en |
dc.title | Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 363001921 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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