Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/302209 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1624
Publisher: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Abstract: 
This paper introduces the AI Generated Index of Occupational Exposure (GENOE), a novel measure quantifying the potential impact of artificial intelligence on occupations and their associated tasks. Our methodology employs synthetic AI surveys, leveraging large language models to conduct expert-like assessments. This approach allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of job replacement likelihood, minimizing human bias and reducing assumptions about the mechanisms through which AI innovations could replace job tasks and skills. The index not only considers task automation, but also contextual factors such as social and ethical considerations and regulatory constraints that may affect the likelihood of replacement. Our findings indicate that the average likelihood of job replacement is estimated at 0.28 in the next year, increasing to 0.38 and 0.44 over the next five and ten years, respectively. To validate our methodology, we successfully replicate other measures of occupational exposure that rely on human expert assessments, substituting these with AI-based evaluations. The GENOE index provides valuable insights for policymakers, employers, and workers, offering a data-driven foundation for strategic workforce planning and adaptation in the face of rapid technological change.
Subjects: 
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Labor markets
Job displacement
Automation
Occupational exposure
Tasks
Synthetic AI surveys
AI Generated Index (GENOE)
JEL: 
C53
C81
J23
J24
O33
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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